Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp (NYSE: ACRE) posted a solid 5.42% gain on Tuesday, closing at $4.98. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has traded between $3.35 and $7.49, reflecting wide price volatility typical of the REIT–Mortgage sector. Despite market fluctuations, the company recorded a strong 66.20% average annual earnings-per-share growth, signaling sharp performance swings. ACRE currently holds a float of 51.74 million shares and 55.02 million shares outstanding.
Insiders Step Back While Institutions Hold Steady
Insider ownership stands at 5.98%, while institutional investors control 43.14% of ACRE shares. The most recent insider activity occurred on January 31, 2025, when the company’s General Counsel, VP, and Secretary sold 7,615 shares at $5.68, totaling $43,263, bringing their remaining shares to 78,360. On the same day, the CFO and Treasurer sold 4,020 shares at the same price, a transaction worth $22,839, leaving them with 50,751 shares. The transactions indicate measured insider selling amid shifting market conditions.
Earnings Miss Raises Questions About Stability
ACRE’s latest quarterly report, released on December 31, 2024, revealed EPS of -0.15, missing the consensus estimate of 0.04 by -0.19. Wall Street analysts expect the current fiscal year’s EPS to come in around 0.0, reflecting cautious expectations. Despite recent challenges, analysts project 66.20% earnings growth in the next fiscal year, reinforcing the stock’s historically volatile performance pattern.
Strong Liquidity but Negative Trailing EPS
In terms of performance metrics, the company maintains a robust quick ratio of 2.29, a positive sign of liquidity. ACRE holds a price-to-sales ratio (TTM) of 3.61, and a price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 12.14, suggesting moderate valuation levels. Trailing twelve-month diluted EPS sits at -0.15, but analysts expect improvement to -0.04 EPS next quarter and 0.07 EPS over the next year, indicating a possible turnaround.
ACRE Heats Up Technically—But Is It Sustainable?
Trading volume for ACRE reached 0.43 million over the past five days, below last year’s 0.52 million, showing a slight dip in trading interest. However, technical indicators tell a different story. The stock’s Stochastic %D of 95.52% suggests overbought conditions. Over the past 100 days, the raw stochastic average hit 97.96%, up from 96.82% over the past two weeks, indicating bullish momentum.
Volatility is rising, with 14-day historical volatility at 0.19, compared to 0.14 over 100 days. The stock trades above its 50-day moving average of $4.68 and 200-day moving average of $4.63, signaling upside strength.
Key levels to watch include:
- Resistance: $5.36, $5.47, $5.67
- Support: $5.05, $4.86, $4.75
These thresholds could determine whether ACRE’s current breakout gains traction or fades.
Key Financial Stats Reveal Mixed Performance
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp holds a market cap of $288.89 million with 55,026K shares outstanding. Annual sales total $69.65 million, though the company currently reports an annual net income of -34.99 million. In the latest quarter, ACRE generated $14.11 million in revenue and $4.65 million in income, reflecting an uneven but improving financial trajectory.
